In this October market review and outlook, we provide a summary of recent events in the economy and financial markets and offer insights into what this may mean for investors moving forward.
For the last year, forecasters have been predicting an economic downturn in the United States as the Federal Reserve (Fed) strives to control inflation by raising interest rates. Historically, the Fed has had difficulty achieving an economic “soft landing”—that is, taming inflation without causing a damaging recession—when raising rates.
However, more than a year into the Fed’s rate hike cycle, the U.S. economy remains resilient. In fact, the first estimate of third-quarter GDP growth came in at an annual rate of 4.9%, its fastest pace since 2021.
Meanwhile, financial markets have taken a hit in recent months. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped more than 10% from their July highs in October, placing both indexes in correction territory. The bond market has also struggled recently as interest rates climb higher.
As we near year-end, many investors are concerned about what a potential recession and ongoing market volatility may mean for their money. Here’s a recap of what’s happened lately and what that may mean for investors heading into 2024.
The Economy Remains Resilient
Since March 2022, the Fed has hiked interest rates 11 times, raising the federal funds rate from near-zero to a target range of 5.25% to 5.5%. However, the Fed has held rates steady since July 2023 in light of moderating inflation and a remarkably resilient labor market.
According to the latest reading of the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core inflation is now 3.7% year over year. While this is significantly lower than its peak reading in June 2022, it’s still a far cry from the Fed’s 2% annual target.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate continues to hold steady at 3.8%, and third-quarter wages and benefits grew 4.3% year over year. Due in part to ongoing labor market strength, consumer spending increased by 4% in the third quarter, propelling GDP to an annual rate of 4.9%.
October Market Review: Financial Markets Continue to Struggle
Despite strong economic performance, the U.S. stock market continued its decline in October, marking three straight months of negative returns. A variety of factors are in part responsible for the recent pullback in performance, including:
- Soaring Treasury yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note approached 5% in October, the highest level since 2007, curbing investors’ appetite for risk and creating headwinds for big tech and other high-growth companies.
- Tax-loss harvesting. The recent pullback prior to October created more opportunities for tax-loss harvesting, which put additional pressure on the market in October as investors sold underperforming stocks to offset gains. On the bright side, research from Bank of America shows that although tax-advantaged selling typically pressures stocks at year-end, it often sets the stage for a strong rebound in January when traders repurchase.
- Higher-than-expected GDP growth. Third-quarter GDP grew at a surprising 4.9% annualized rate, quashing hopes that the Fed will lower interest rates in the near term.
- Ongoing geopolitical tensions. Russia’s war in Ukraine and the Hamas-Israel conflict continue to add to market uncertainty.
The bond market has also seen weakness as interest rates continue their ascent (in general, bond prices fall as interest rates rise, and vice versa). Both 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields increased more than 0.3% in October, causing longer-term bonds to underperform.
Looking Ahead: Underlying Economic Concerns
Although the U.S. economy continues to hum along, concerns of a potential downturn persist. Some of the factors that could contribute to an economic slowdown include:
- Declining real disposable income and household savings. Personal income adjusted for taxes and inflation fell 1% in the third quarter after rising 3.5% in the second quarter. Furthermore, personal savings as a percentage of real disposable income fell from 5.2% in the second quarter to 3.8% in the third quarter. As consumers eat through their savings, they may not be able to spend at the same rate going forward.
- Rising long-term interest rates. Long-term interest rates recently saw their highest levels since 2007. For example, 10-year Treasury yields briefly passed 5% in October, while 30-year yields traded north of 5% for most of the month. Higher rates may be problematic for consumer spending and business investment, as well as several business sectors including the housing market.
- Tighter credit markets. According to a recent survey from the National Federation of Independent Business, more small businesses reported difficulty accessing credit in September compared to the previous month. The inability to secure capital could lead to a pullback in business investment and hiring.
If these concerns come to fruition, financial markets and the economy might falter accordingly. On the other hand, an economic slowdown could alleviate the need for further Fed intervention, paving the way for future interest rate cuts.
What This Means for Investors
Although recent GDP data is encouraging, these growth rates may not be sustainable as underlying economic concerns create pressure for consumers and businesses alike. While a full-blown recession may not be imminent, many economists expect the economy to cool in the coming months.
Meanwhile, the Fed will decide whether future rate hikes are necessary as new data becomes available. Despite holding rates steady since July, another increase is possible before year-end.
For investors, this lack of clarity may mean heightened market volatility in the near term. At the same time, November is historically the best month for the S&P 500. Indeed, strong performance from U.S. equities could help offset recent losses.
Ultimately, we don’t know what the future holds. However, we do know that patience tends to reward long-term investors. Those who maintain a diversified portfolio and stick to their investment plan typically fare better than those who attempt to time the market.
In the meantime, I encourage you to focus on what’s controllable—for instance, your spending habits, savings rates, and investment decisions—and avoid knee-jerk reactions to negative headlines.
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